Supercomputer predicts final Premier League standings — and there is nothing between Arsenal and Manchester City
A supercomputer has predicted the final Premier League standings based on the latest fixtures in England’s top fligh…
A supercomputer has predicted the final Premier League standings based on the latest fixtures in England’s top flight, and the title race between Arsenal and Manchester City is expected to go to the bone.
FiveThirtyEight (opens in new tab) uses its own Soccer Power Index (SPI), which is the basis for calculating each team’s results.
“SPI ratings are our best estimate of a team’s overall strength,” explains FiveThirtyEight. “In our system, each team has an offensive rating that reflects the number of goals it is expected to score against an average team on a neutral pitch, and a defensive rating that reflects the number of goals it is expected to conced.
“These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available points the team was expected to achieve if that game were played over and over again.”
That said, the supercomputer states that Arsenal have a 51 per cent chance of winning the Premier League, with Manchester City getting the remaining 49 per cent — meaning there is hardly anything to say between the two sides vying for the title.
City, currently on 64 points, are expected to reach 87 points, while Arsenal should beat them with 88. However, in the match between the two sides at the Etihad Stadium on April 26, Manchester City are the big favourites.
Awarded a 59 per cent chance of winning the game, compared to Arsenal’s 25 per cent, the reigning champions are expected to make the title race even more interesting.
Elsewhere, Newcastle United and Manchester United are heavily favored to finish in the top four and qualify for the Champions League, with Brighton expected to finish above Tottenham in fifth. Liverpool is in seventh place according to FiveThirtyEight.
At the other end of the table, Southampton are the team most likely to be relegated, with the Saints expecting to collect just 32 points. After that, everyone seems to be guessing, but the supercomputer predicts that Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth will join them in the Championship’s next campaign.
Indeed, Forest are expected to get 34 points, while Bournemouth will finish on 36 points — the same as Everton and Leicester City, although their superior goal difference keep the latter two going.
This is football, of course, where anything can happen, so don’t be surprised if this supercomputer gets it all wrong. Roll at the end of the season.
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2022/23 Premier League Final Table (according to FiveThirthyEight)
1. Arsenal (88 points)
2. Manchester City (87 points)
3. Newcastle United (70 points)
4. Manchester United (70 points)
5. Brighton and Hove Albion (64 points)
6. Tottenham Hotspur (63 points)
7.Liverpool (62 points)
8. Aston Villa (56 points)
9. Brentford (55 points)
10.Chelsea (52 points)
11. Fulham (50pts)
12. Crystal Palace (43 points)
13. Leeds United (40 points)
14. West Ham United (39 points)
15. Wolves (38 points)
16. Leicester City (36 points)
17. Everton (36 points)
18. AFC Bournemouth (36 points)
19. Nottingham Forest (34 points)
20. Southampton (32 points)
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